... SW Mediterranean ... E Spain ...
The few available west-Mediterranean soundings suggest that the LL moisture is quite shallow, resulting in very weak or non-existent MLCAPEs. However, it may be speculated that locally the moisture is deeper than in the soundings and that appreciable CAPEs could be present.
DCVA-related adscent should overspread Iberia and the western Mediterranean during the day, which on the one hand will support convective initiation, but on the other hand will bring about extensive cloudiness and possibly some rain. Overall it thus seems that instability should remain on the weak side but that
deep convection will occur.
Deep-layer shear over eastern Spain and the western Mediterranean will likely be in the
20 to 25 m/s range, which is more than adequate for
well-organized multicells and supercells. It seems that the main threat with this activity will be
severe wind gusts and large hail, as well as
local flooding. The coverage of the severe events is uncertain given the limited instability and the possibility of the storms to be elevated and imbedded in stratiform rain. Currently, a
LVL1 threat seems to be sufficient, but an upgrade to LVL2 may be required, should the stratiform cloudiness weaken and instability become larger than currently anticipated.
